It has been a week since my last post and much has happened. In Germany as well as worldwide. The pandemic continues and countries are beginning to undertake strict and painful countermeasures in order to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. Germany started to take the outbreak more seriously and since yesterday, Bavaria is urging everyone to follow the strict rules of isolation going out only on most urgent needs. Today Berlin prohibited gathering of more than 2 people, families and households excluded, but the real numbers are only starting to flow in. In Slovenia prototype respirators have been made in cooperation of engineers, biologists, medical doctors and many companies in order to jump start local production due to 2-4 month delivery times on the global markets. Myself, I have used my contacts and resources to start purchasing face masks from the Chinese Factories and deliver to Austria and Slovenia since the shortage is extreme and everyone needs reliable supply routes. Buyers are – states, retirement homes, pharma companies, distributors, pharmacies, industrial and other companies that want to better protect their employees. European Union is ramping up production capacity as well, but it is difficult to do in such a short time.

My workdays have been 12-16 hours workdays mostly from the office (we have the whole office building floor to ourself) with my colleague, the rest of our employees are in home office or on sick leave. We try to keep up with work and productivity, although it is proving difficult, as home office and also taking care of children, family members is proving to be difficult. We are also monitoring the measures Germany is going to be providing for companies. At the moment it does not seem that we will need them as our Software and services are in demand, but it never hurts to be informed and ready. All my employment plans are put on hold, even though we have some good candidates we would like to employ. I guess we are not the only company right now that has put a stop to it.

A very good article on the Corona outbreak, mostly confirming my thoughts was brought to my attention. I do recommend you to take the time and read it, there is more and more confirmation that the world will never be the same after this as well as nobody really knowing how long the pandemic will last and how it will impact our lives. And the unknown is where fear lives. Recently I have a tab open constantly on the coronavirus reported cases globally with statistics, even though not because of the sheer numbers but because I want to have a feeling if panic might start.

The Legal services division (currently for employers and employees) is performing well, we have good visibility in Slovenia. The cases we get are horrible. Employees are being let off overnight, forced or bullied to sign resignations (which means they are not eligible to get unemployment benefits) – mostly because the employers have no idea what to do, they only know the companies stopped so they have to cut costs. Hopefully we will be able to help as many companies and people in need as of course countries are setting up countermeasures to prevent the economic collapse. Many keep working, there is no provision of personal protective equipment because of the shortages on the market. The worst thing is we often get questions what to do if they have someone who might be at risk at home (i.e. with asthma, cancer or breathing disorders) and worry they will get infected at work and bring it home. If they explain their concerns, they are often threatened by employers they will lose their jobs. Mostly people with minimum wage income, even though we are now getting cases in from other service industries as well. We are launching same products and services in Germany now, where the same is occurring, but people have more money and it is more conventional to seek legal advice before taking action. Also Germany is moving much faster in accepting legislation and countermeasures to protect its economy, even though everyone knows the fallout from this will be enormous. 150 Billion EUR have been planned to help mitigate the economic damages. Right now, not much is new, but I do see light at the end of the tunnel, the measures will work and next week I am fairly certain Slovenia will have it under control, in about 3 Weeks Germany should as well.

Recently I thought a lot about things we don’t hear about anymore – what is happening with millions of refugees at the European borders, how are poorer countries coping and do they even know how widely spread the outbreaks there are?

What will change after the crisis? I think we are all getting a lesson that global supply lines are not the best and it will make sense to look towards self-sustainable supply at least for EU and shorten the supply routes. We have become too dependent on other continents which is showing to be a huge weakness right now. How will the economies change after this has been done, will we impact the developing countries in a bad way by doing that? Most probably yes.

What is happening with the elderly, how are people coping with isolation? Will the internet infrastructure here be able to manage all the data flows (mostly from streaming in homes) – I think not, since Germany has infrastructure from beginning of 2000s, fibre optic is not really spread out here and about 5G we can only dream. How will that impact people being at home? From my friends and family in Slovenia I get a lot of information on how tough it is to be isolated and it has only been 1 week… several more to go. How will Germany’s over 80 million handle that? Will we start running out of supplies due to supply lines disruptions, will we start seeing shortages of certain products? Who is taking care of the homeless now? Very few people are walking the streets, even less of them will give a coin to a beggar. And so on… so many things that are changing and so many wrongs as well. But I think this pandemic will show us where we can improve as a global society, also how we can work together. The effort to manage the COVID-19 pandemic is a global one and researchers and countries are working together on fighting it, so a lot of good will happen as well.

This weekend Germany had a hackathon organised by the government to build solutions to help in these times. Over 43.000 people attended and build several tools that are critical in these times, that is amazing. Many people who usually wouldn’t lift a finger for less than 2.000€ per day participated for free, that is extremely positive. Estonia had an international hackathon to combat Corona as well about a week ago it was also a big success, people from over 20 countries participated. The times we live in are amazing in how we can collaborate and work together, also achieve higher goals and I can only hope that our future is not one of wearing a mask and gloves when we go about our daily business – be it because of infections or pollution. I am also very much looking to seeing the results of the world stopping for a bit on the environment. If anything the COVID-19 pandemic is showing us that the whole planet CAN and WILL take action if the motivation is powerful enough. The only issue is that global warming is slow, COVID-19 is extremely fast, that’s why its on our radar. Hopefully we learn and remember, I am looking positively towards the future and hoping that we all learn as a global society and improve. Thank you for your attention and all your feedbacks and discussions are much appreciated.

Since the COVID-19 or Corona virus infection is becoming a global risk and more and more voices are being heard in the light of current global events, I have decided to share my 2 cents on the topic. This post is written from the following personal perspective of my situation: business owner and managing director – involved in 3 companies and several businesses (a few of them newly also corona related – 1 & 2, 3 and 4 coming this week), investor & trader on the global (currency & stock) markets, someone living in Germany and Slovenia and frequently travelling the world and a person with many acquaintances in the pharma and healthcare businesses. But most of all, someone who likes to think in a broader sense about what kind of impact a global pandemic will bring to the modern global society.

Those of you who know me well, know that I have been saying for some time now that the state of peace and well-being that we have been experiencing (especially in Europe) in the last years is something without precedent. In European history this is the first time we have peace and economic well-being for such a long period of time and it was in my opinion closely related to the economic stagnation of European economy. As a consumer you can only buy that many TV´s, couches, cars, computers and phones, after that it starts to get old. Because of that I was sceptical of the possibility of further economic growth, as all new developments are focused on the digital and services with a very low (my personal view) probability of finding or developing enough demand to be sold en masse to the average European consumer (who also is pretty worn out due to the high costs of living and slow growth of wages). But this article is not about what I have just written so far, however, it is closely related to the positions on the global markets and economies and, as I will try to explain in this post, that is extremely connected with what we will be experiencing in the following months, most probably years.

My final point was always saying that today globalization is either going to bring all nations closer together or push us farther apart. On one side we have the unprecedented ability to travel the world, meet and experience other countries, mix with other ethnicities and maybe even fall in love and start a family half a world apart. Through social media and internet people on the other side of the planet have faces, we can talk with them, interact and by taking a flight even meet them the next day. Amazing, right? The other side of the coin – the more you stir, the more entropy that will cause – I like looking at that as making a bowl of cereal. If you just pour yoghurt on it, it will take time to soak in, if you mix it however, you create a special little chaos, but after that the soaking will happen much faster and more consistent. I think we are in that chaos phase right now – we in Europe are faced with the impact of refugees from destabilized countries, hoping to find a human-worthy opportunity for a normal life. Everyone wants the best for themselves, we all want to go to sleep with a roof over our head, drinkable water, access to food, electricity, internet and so forth. But what is good for someone else is not necessarily good for us, if you step on my toes I will react. That I have been noticing in Germany as well as in Slovenia – we are selective. We don’t just accept and integrate, we push back, even though we would probably do the same in a similar situation. Today we are faced with a new situation – full isolation (for most people), because we fear for our lives. Or do we?

The coronavirus, I agree, is a serious matter. Mostly because flattening the curve is critical to enabling the people who need medical attention access to proper medical care (for European standards, of course). Most of us are not at a high risk even if (and when) we contract the virus. We have had the flu for an extremely long time and we are used to it. AIDS was new to humans in the 1980s, today people infected live normal lives and can also have interactions with others without infecting them, pharmaceuticals are an amazing thing and progress in the healthcare sector is amazing. The more important battle may come when known bacteria becomes resistant to publicly accessible antibiotics as there is yet substantial progress to be made in that field. However, things that are being done in gene therapy treatments, biological medications, etc. are amazing. I am certain that once it becomes economically viable our technical capabilities to combat the symptoms and causes will be accessible throughout the western world. So yes, stopping the aggressive spread caused through interaction with others is good for managing the panic and I do agree for the next few weeks reducing or cancelling events and mass gatherings makes sense and we should do it. The sooner we do it, the less it will impact the economy long term. And the economy is what worries me, each week of scare and irrational behaviour means months of economic downturn. The worst, however, what we may get out of this pandemic, is a change in the consumer mindset. That will most probably happen if the countermeasures will continue and tighten, then more people will be scared, believe in fake information and false claims which may lead to a change in the general mindset of people. This may mean many industrial & services businesses will die out, which will cause the turning of the massive economic recession wheel, turning that will not be easy to stop.

Our company in Slovenia implemented home office work for all employees. The company here in Germany – half of our employees are in home office. Not because of their so choosing, but because of circumstances – kindergartens are closed, so will be schools, there is no availability of help – parents are older, so there is a substantial risk for them if they would contract the coronavirus, child care services are not available, they are either overbooked, or completely cancelled. So parents have to stay at home. We all know that productivity will fall, as children, especially really young ones, need active attention. How this will reflect on the business is a good question. In some industries everything stopped. If you know people in event organization, gastronomy, travel, tourism, hotels and related industries (i.e. machine suppliers for bars, etc.) – ask around, you will see for them the business stopped. And it does not seem to be looking bright in the coming months. There are large numbers of people dependent on these industries and that is only the beginning. The impact will be felt throughout the market. The stock market knows that and even though we have experienced the worst crashes since the 1987 crash, I believe there is more of it to come. This downturn will not be fixed in months, it will take years.

As mentioned, the longer this lasts, the higher the chance of a new mindset being established. Although I see many positive points, as for example reduction in pollution and human impact (less transportation, less manufacturing, less energy expenditures), more social interaction in extended families and close environment, stronger bonds between people, there are also strong negative points as well.

Posted by Lignano Journal on Wednesday, March 11, 2020

In Triest sind die Delphie zurück ?

✅ Die Delphine ? sind zurück ? Sie kommen so nah weil keine Schiffe fahren ? #italia #andratuttobeneEs sind unglaubliche Phänomene, die uns durchaus den einen oder anderen Anstoß zum Nachdenken geben können ?

Posted by Lignano Journal on Friday, March 13, 2020

Dolphins are once again seen at the pier in Trieste due to the absence of ship traffic.

A change in the mindset might bring us closer together in our tight social groups, but it will push us further apart globally again. Countries will have grown apart once more and the global society will take a step back again, which I find is a relevant setback in pursuing what we might be able to achieve as a global society with common goals. Impact to economy will bring more unemployment and the requirement to implement new social systems to keep the peace – as long as people have food, safety, water and a roof over their head – they will remain placid, once that is gone it can be days if not hours when everything goes crazy. In the last few days stories were shared with me of events where people threatened people in supermarkets with guns for bottled water (!) – such events transpire due to panic short term (even without an actual resource shortage present), long term – look at Europe’s borders – failed states or rather failed economies cause massive movements. And as said before, the more you stir, the more entropy you create. This may create more economical migrations, create more hate for different nations, religions, cultures or races. So many negatives which will most probably outweigh the positives.

All in all – hopefully the preventive measures will not be required much longer for the general population and they will be over soon enough that we may start with “business as usual”. If the spread would continue too fast we will be faced with mass panic, if the time to stabilize the spread will be too long, the economy will break down even more. There is no win-win, there is just a milder lose-lose situation waiting. As in any aftermath some industries will thrive, but the general population will have it worse off. In the closing words I turn to you with the following appeal – follow the official guidelines, you will at some point in your life most probably come in contact with the corona virus, the same as you did with the flu. You will most probably survive and your immune system will defeat it on its own, the chance is extremely high, even too high to really worry about it. Do not fall for the panic, do not trust panicked news or what you read online from tabloids, unvalidated sources with no expertise. I am noticing more and more of that online, and as we all know, repeat something long enough, it will become the truth.

Do not, again, fall for that. It is difficult, even as a very well informed person, with information from the “front-line” with corona, first hand insight into economical situation (from my businesses), first hand experience from 2 countries simultaneously, am starting to get worried, which is not good. That is a natural response, nobody wants to be at risk, but it is the wrong response and it will cost us dearly. What will happen if our supermarkets will be closed for longer periods of time, do we even know how to go by with the basics anymore? The calmer we behave, the lower the chance of such a situation will be.

The better we follow the rules and guidelines, the sooner this will be under control, then we will need to worry about fixing the economy once again. Hopefully for the better, but quite honestly, probably for the worse. More people will be impacted by automation, which will probably thrive and we will need to find ways to mitigate that, maybe universal income will be a sensible solution. We shall see and only time will tell, but what I do know for certain, things will never be quite the same again.

Looking forward to your comments below (please keep a proper respectable level of communication).